In the lead-up to Nigeria’s 2019 general elections, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Zamfara State was plagued by deep internal divisions and leadership crises that prevented it from conducting valid primary elections within the timeline stipulated by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Factional disputes emerged, and the party failed to resolve them internally. This led to a situation in which the APC could not produce properly nominated candidates for the governorship, National Assembly, and State Assembly elections. Despite this, the party proceeded to field Malam Mukhtar Shehu Idris as its governorship candidate. He went on to win overwhelmingly at the polls, securing over 67 per cent of the votes.
However, in a landmark ruling delivered on May 24, 2019, the Supreme Court nullified all APC victories in the state, declaring the party’s votes “wasted” because it had no validly nominated candidates owing to the flawed primaries. The court ordered that the seats be awarded to the runners-up from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), including Bello Matawalle as Governor.
If there was a lesson from that episode, it was that unresolved internal wrangling can cost a major party an entire state’s electoral harvest. It demonstrated how a self-inflicted crisis can pave the way for a shrewd opposition party to take power despite trailing significantly in the popular vote.
Recent events in Bauchi State give me similar concerns about the fate of the APC in the state.
Last month, the APC announced that it would conduct governorship primaries on May 21, 2026. While the exercise took place in several states, it was postponed in Bauchi by a few days. Why?
Bauchi State, a state unique in its politics and known for the sophistication of its electorate, was experiencing teething problems. Some aspirants had openly declared their intentions to run, while others chose to play political games behind the scenes.
Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar, whom I would describe as one of the leading aspirants in the race, was among the first to publicly throw his hat into the ring. Bala Wunti, a former executive in NNPC’s upstream operations, also declared his interest. Others followed suit. Meanwhile, former Governor Mohammed Abubakar, who was voted out of office in 2019, quietly signalled his interest behind the scenes.
Notably, the Minister of Health, Mohammed Pate, whom many believed had an interest in the seat, did not resign his position to contest.
It was only after subsequent events unfolded that Nigerians began to understand why. Mohammed Pate had apparently chosen not to contest. Instead, he was said to have sought the President’s backing for Mohammed Abubakar’s candidacy, reportedly on the understanding that Abubakar, if elected, would serve a single term and thereafter make way for him.
It was therefore not surprising that on May 22, Mohammed Abubakar reportedly told a public gathering that he had received the President’s endorsement.
That claim, known only to him and reportedly dismissed as a lie by those close to the President, came as a shock to many. Only days earlier, Mohammed Abubakar had barely featured in discussions surrounding the ticket. Indeed, he is an unpopular candidate in Bauchi State. No shrewd political strategist would place such him at the top of a ticket they intend to win with.
On the same day, his associates reportedly claimed in the media that he had emerged as the consensus candidate. However, no other aspirant had agreed to such a consensus. Ambassador Tuggar, in particular, publicly rejected the claim, insisting that no consensus arrangement had been reached and that he had signed no agreement endorsing any candidate—which is a crucial legal ingredient for the definition of a consensus candidate.
Then came the greatest surprise of all.
On May 23, 2026, Mr John Abang, the APC Chairman of the Governorship Primary Election Committee in Bauchi State, announced the results of the primaries from a room occupied by only a handful of people. According to the figures he presented, Mohammed Abubakar—who had neither publicly campaigned extensively for the office nor participated in any visible contest—had won the primary with more than 57,000 votes. Ambassador Tuggar, according to the same figures, came second with over 26,000 votes.
This is a travesty.
Wherever Mr Abang obtained those figures from, they did not come from Bauchi State. Across the state, no voting reportedly took place during the governorship primaries. As of today, no photographs, videos, or other credible evidence have emerged showing that primary elections were conducted anywhere in the state. Only Mr Abang appears to know where those votes came from.
The danger is that the APC may have created a serious legal and political problem for itself.
By every indication, no lawful nor valid primary election took place in Bauchi State. First, there was no consensus. Had there been one, the legal requirement would have been for all aspirants involved to formally endorse and agree to it. That did not happen.
Mohammed Abubakar, being a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), should know this better than most.
Second, there was no observable primary election. No voting process was witnessed across the state. No delegates were seen casting ballots. No evidence has been produced to show that any election actually occurred.
If an aggrieved aspirant decides to challenge the process in court—whether today, tomorrow, or even after the general election—the APC may find itself facing the same legal danger that befell it in Zamfara State. A court could conclude that no valid primary election took place and that the party therefore has no lawful candidate.
Would that not hand an easy victory to the APM, the platform owned by Bala Mohammed? Or to the PDP? Or even to the ADC? Why would the APC allow itself to make such a grave electoral mistake when it can still be avoided?
Mohammed Abubakar is unelectable. He is unpopular among many voters in Bauchi State and would struggle to command significant electoral support. He is simply not worth the risk the APC is taking.
The President and the leadership of the party must not allow Mohammed Pate to lead them into a political dungeon and leave the APC trapped in Bauchi State’s electoral purgatory while he completes his tenure as Minister of Health. That would be unfair to the party.
The APC boasts some of the country’s finest political minds and most formidable political operators. It owes itself better than this. A credible primary election—or a properly negotiated and legally compliant consensus process—would produce a candidate capable of winning the state. That is what the party should be pursuing, not a process that many already regard as a sham and which may ultimately end in disaster.
This decision should be reversed immediately. Otherwise, the APC risks shooting itself in the foot once again, just as it did in Zamfara State. Mohammed Abubakar, an unpopular former governor with significant electoral baggage, is simply not worth the risk.
– Dahiru Bashir, writes from the FCT
